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Post by Helen Dagner on Jul 9, 2007 9:46:34 GMT -5
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Post by Helen Dagner on Jul 10, 2007 4:52:01 GMT -5
Helen,
Geographic profiling services should be requested early in the investigation in cases where the crime is serial in nature, where the offender is unknown, where help is needed to narrow the focus of the investigation and/or where special circumstances exist.
Geographic profiling is an investigative aid that predicts the serial offender's most likely location including home, work, social venues, and travel routes. Using information from a series of related crimes, a geographic profiler uses a mathematical model to analyze the locations of the crimes and the characteristics of the local neighbourhoods in order to produce a map showing the areas in which the offender most likely lives and works.
Geographic profiling helps focus investigative efforts on the probable location of the suspect, within an area defined by the 'geoprofile'. It has the potential to reduce the time and effort spent investigating and apprehending an offender. Geographic profiling complements usual investigative techniques and is best used together with criminal profiling.
Geographic profiling was useful in this serial crime as the offender was unknown to the profilers. A minimum of five crimes or related sites are required for a complete profile in your geographic profiling 15 sites were used in profiling your suspect.
The Geographic profilers who worked on your files are experienced police investigators with many years training in serial violent crime and the computerized mathematical modeling used to create the geographic profiles.
This geographic profile provides the investigator with a geographic focus for the investigation. A series of maps has identify the probable home and work locations of your suspect. The maps also identify paths to use when searching for the offender. This geographic profile has also listed multiple suspects in a priority order based on their residence and work locations.
Identifying a catchment area: A catchment area is the geographical area served by an institution, retail, or other facility. Using a mathematical process (a Thiessen polygon analysis), we have determine the catchment areas of a series of locations. For example, the process could identify the catchment areas of the grocery stores in the city. This service is useful for identifying the area of investigation in some cases.
Time, speed and distance calculations: These calculations enclosed can help an investigator who needs to know how far an offender can travel in a given period of time or how much time an offender would require to travel a given distance. They can determine time, speed, and distance calculations for walking, jogging, riding a bicycle or driving a vehicle.
Geographic profilers -have enclosed the finish maps to help investigators related to this series of crimes. These maps are useful for court, briefings, presentations, and reconstructing historical cases.
It is the opinion of this firm Xxxxx Xxxx Xxxxx That your suspect is a person of significant interest in the Oakland County Child Killings.
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Post by Helen Dagner on Jul 16, 2007 7:39:13 GMT -5
We are at a complete loss as to why the present day task force hasn't investigated the finding of Jill's bike by the two boys who have since come forward with what could be vital information.This could be of paramount importance,as it would precisely pin point the spot where Jill was most probably abducted,we found it to be of great value,as it was yet another data point we used to help connect the Geographic Profile dots. Another logic defying stunt by the TF when dealing with witnesses in a flippant manner or just ignoring them all together. Helen,we are not surprised that this case remains unsolved.At this rate it never will be solved.
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Post by Helen Dagner on Jul 16, 2007 7:41:29 GMT -5
In the matter of Alpena Witness-The police learned some important information when he came forward. The fact that he did not report it until sometime after the event-does not make it less valuable nor does it lessen his credibility-we have talked to Loretta as you suggested and she confirms the AW story.The fact that he made several attempts to immediately contacted the police when he realized that there may have been a connection to the Oakland County Child Murders speaks volumes-LE knows that this type of information is not made up-the issue here is there is not much that can be done with the map drawing information at this time other than as a tool-The fact that you have the maps and the one is drawn exactly as the witness has described and that it can be proven that the witness was indeed at the location on the date and time of the map drawings at the Big Boy restaurant in Alpena-does make him a valuable witness -if not the most valuable one in this entire case thus far-Helen,the usual Serial Killer investigation groupie-tries to inject himself into a case by concocting a big,central,pivotal role in the case.The Alpena Witness does the exact opposite.His testimony not only corroborates and strengthens much of what is already on record,he does so from the periphery and makes no attempt to move to the center stage of the investigation.{3 of 456}
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Post by Helen Dagner on Jul 16, 2007 7:43:31 GMT -5
We have had great difficulty trying to comprehend why the task force did not pay more attention to the tip by PC.We do believe the blue gremlin play apart in this { see the blue Gremlin file} However when the police were made aware of the story by the daughter-in-law and yourself-they should have been able to make the connection and looked into this further-as here you have two people who have never met telling the same story-PC-through her daughter-in-law and yourself through notes taken 14 plus years after this event-and they match.PC-
"Around 4:00 p.m. it occurred to her that with everyone being out of the house that night, it would be a good time to color her hair. She drove up to the HM Pharmacy, parked in back, and entered through the back door.- there was a narrow hallway you had to walk through before it opened up to the pharmacy area in the back. She was walking down the hall and bumped into a man in his late 20’s or early 30’s (she thought) and he seemed startled by the incident. He stood there for an extended period of time looking at her before she moved past. He had dark hair and she thought sideburns – but does not remember them being the big mutton chopped sideburns described in the composite sketch. She felt unsettled about the incident, bought her hair dye and drove home." Then John tells you-" that he had been startled by a woman in the pharmacy who physically bumped into him." and the time-line matches-he told you he stormed out of the house just before 5pm and went to Hunter Maple Pharmacy to use the pay phone.Then he tells you-the woman bought hair dye.-I understand that this information because PC is( now deceased) can only be used as a tool-however it has significant value even today-as it discounts the blue Gremlin-and puts another vehicle in that immediate area at a critical time- The fact that the Occk killings haunted and puzzled her for the rest of her life-and
she never wavered from that story- but calls numerous times over the years in an attempt to get someone to listen to her -.makes it more difficult to understand law enforcement's decision not to follow up on this tip-also equally baffling-is the phone call to her home -in which the same person-who shows up on a call list of John's-nearly 15 years later-is in fact the same person.{I have added more comment on PC in the summation report}---{4 of 456}
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